A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."