Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.